Bounce possible after August 24th

My sentiment charts are showing a possible bounce on or after August 24th (Gann Cycle date). We may have one more down day tomorrow based on sentiment chats. If we don't break 1398 tomorrow, possibility exists for another attempt to break 1422 (**correction 1419 close)
That brings us to August 30th the next Gann date.   SPX/VIX ratio is still above 80 and 16 trading days increases the probability of turn.  So if we don't break 1398 tomorrow on Gann date, then heading into August 30th is where I will load up on my short position to swing. August 31 is Jackson Hole Meeting of Feds.

NYMO

NYAD

 OEX (bounce as early as August 24th)

 Avg Sentiment

Happy trading!

Double Top?

We're getting close to a possible double top at 1422.  Stops are sitting at this area after OPEX on Friday.  Below are sentiment charts prior to Monday August 20th (another gann date).  This looks like it is almost baked to short.  Maybe a beginning of pullback.  If it breaks below 1405, then 1398, 1393, and 1386 are support.  There is a gap on VIX sitting at 17.55 area. It's possible to hit the lower bollinger band before it bounces to cover the gap. 

McClellan Oscillator (100%) after + divergence.

NYAD sentiment forming negative divergence

VIX (100%)

I have added a position on UVXY.  Closed 8/20

SPX/VIX > 80 Probability

I'm still patiently waiting for the set-up.  The potential is still there that this breaks 1422 and a new bull trend is established.  But right now, it's a nested rising wedge within a rising channel, trying to break through trendline from 2007. 

One ratio that has been reliable for me in the past is SPX/VIX.  When this ratio stays above 80, the probability of decline increases with each passing day.  Back in April, it hit 100% and sold off.  So if we stay above 80, below are probabilities after each trading day.

Probability Of Down		Date
1 TD later	67%	3-Aug
2 TD later	50%	6-Aug
3 TD later	42%	7-Aug
4 TD later	57%	8-Aug
5 TD later	61%	9-Aug
6 TD later	57%	10-Aug
7 TD later	65%	13-Aug
8 TD later	65%	14-Aug
9 TD later	70%	15-Aug
10 TD later	74%	16-Aug
11 TD later	74%	17-Aug
12 TD later	74%	20-Aug
13 TD later	83%	21-Aug
14 TD later	78%	22-Aug
15 TD later	83%	23-Aug
16 TD later	83%	24-Aug
17 TD later	87%	27-Aug
18 TD later	83%	28-Aug
19 TD later	91%	29-Aug
20 TD later	91%	30-Aug
21 TD later	100%	31-Aug
22 TD later	100%
23 TD later	100%
24 TD later	100%
25 TD later	100%
26 TD later	100%
27 TD later	96%
28 TD later	96%
29 TD later	96%
30 TD later	96%

Patiently wait til August 24th - Gann Cycle date

After today's scalp on the short side, I have decided to wait until August 24th to short to swing trade instead of scalping short or long intraday for the remainder of August.  August 9th is my immediate gann cycle date with August 8th Fibonnaci cycle date.  Because both SPX and VIX closed green, we will see some type of pull back by this Wednesday or Thursday.  Support is sitting at 1393 and 1386.  Further support can be found at 1378.  The rising channel is now a rising wedge with higher low.

There are other Gann cycle dates in between now and August 24th (8/15 and 8/20), but the chart is lining up with August 24th OPEX.  1407 and 1410 SPX area is where I will begin loading up on short side for a good extended swing, unless SPX takes out 1422.  There is another Gann date on August 30, but I'm not going to look at that now unless 1422 is taken out.   For now, we chop up and down on this channel / rising wedge until August 24th.  By then all smart money traders will be back from summer holidays. A very successful futures trader on our chat board taught me to wait at the watering hole.  The market is like a python and will not let retail shorts out until it has heard the last heart beat.

Retail P/C Sentiment

 

August 3rd Gann date and bullish inside candle on 4hr

SPX turned on July 31 Gann Cycle date, and now we head into August 3rd for a possible bounce based on an inside candle on 4hr chart at close.  SPX and VIX both closed RED today.  If SPX breaks through 1372 on Friday then another test of 1393 is possible going into August 9th. But if we do not break 1372, then we head back down to 1340 and possibly lower.  For tomorrow's trade, 1363 and 1352 are support.  SPX is still above the trend average.

NYMO Sentiment Chart

 
NYAD Sentiment Chart

VIX Sentiment Trend