Possible bounce as early as Monday 6/3

ping pong to frustrate traders at the top

without giving away too much here, traders in the chat room are perfectly comfortable with what is happening in the market  we have a lotto ticket on the short side into the summer. 1593 was our target for the bounce.  And now, if we break 1578, then we'll see 1573, and then 1563.  Thereafter, we scalp long again to grab another lotto ticket.

 if you are interested in finding out more, click on the link below to join the free chat room.

https://hall.com/invites/38ad415e6b

Top may be in.

shorting the bounce as long as 1580 does not break.

bounce as early as tomorrow or wednesday.

smart money sentiment fell below 50%.  maybe one more down day tomorrow and then pump up by wednesday.
price i'm watching are 1552>1545>1539. 

fall below the bottom channel and then bounce up to 1579.

Retrace and then pump again

On monday, the down trend did not continue per Gann's 3.5 days from the recent top.  We saw +divergence on our charts.  Since then, smart money p/c sentiment climbed to 100%.  It never fell below 50%. 

Today, people in the chat room saw negative divergence on 10min chart, so we waited and went short at 1573.  This after some people in the chat room going long from 1539.  Support at 1562 and at 1556.    If you missed going long last Friday, we should have another opportunity in coming days which will catch everyone off guard.

Smart Money Sentiment above 80%

Yesterday was 1 year anniversary of 2012 high and we closed at 1570 to post highest close ever for SPX.  Today, we pulled back to 1549 and closed above 1553.  Minor uptrend channel has been broken. However, larger uptrend trend channel is still in tact.  Smart Money sentiment is still showing above 80%, which is still bullish until sentiment is broken below 50%. 

McClellan Oscillator is showing oversold, so we may bounce tomorrow.  In the short term, I'm watching 3.5 days from yesterday's high for a change in minor trend.  It may become a beginning of a major trend, so that would be Monday.

My Swing system

Chart below shows that the market favor the bulls.  So going forward, I won't be posting too many charts.  Whenever, Smart Money sentiment reads zero, I will post it that night.

Topping is a process.   Bottoming is an event.

double doji and engulfing SPX daily

We made coin again in our trading chat room today.  We bounced right at the trend/support of the triangle at 1499.  I have 2 big numbers.  1516 and 1495.   I wouldn't try to predict which way it breaks on the triangle.

However, we do have an engulfing red daily candle with body and tail over yesterday's candle.  If we break 1516, we're off to races to 1551.  If we break 1495, you already see that there is alot of room left below to 1472.

If you want to join our free chat room, please send an email to sellhigh@stratisgroup.com

McClellan Oscillator sentiment ready for a bounce

SPX 1495>1492 are major support.  McClellan Oscillator is possible to bounce as early as tomorrow or Wednesday.  Bulls need to clear 1502, which is near the current trend average.

VIX - long term support band

Below is a long term VIX support band chart

Weekly chart indicate we are at major support levels.  3 brown lines represent high, low and midpoint support levels.  12.28 is midpoint.

We cleaned out stops above 1499 to 1502, but we're not near the Gann date, so we may hang around here for a bit to grind out shorts.  Smart money needs to digest it's big meal until 1/31 or 2/5

Gann - January 31st and Feb 5th,,, tomorrow is 233 fib days from the low

 Smart money is not letting up.  Buy the dip intraday, ramp into higher close.  There was no sell signal intraday during last several trading days.  So the smart money is feasting on shorts.  Smart money sentiment chart is shown below.  When it stays up at 100, you do not want to short.

SPX/VIX has been above 80 for last 14 trading days.  High probability on the short side starting 1/31, which is a gann date.

Probability Of Down		Date
1 TD later	67%	2-Jan
2 TD later	50%	3-Jan
3 TD later	42%	4-Jan
4 TD later	57%	7-Jan
5 TD later	61%	8-Jan
6 TD later	57%	9-Jan
7 TD later	65%	10-Jan
8 TD later	65%	11-Jan
9 TD later	70%	14-Jan
10 TD later	74%	15-Jan
11 TD later	74%	16-Jan
12 TD later	74%	17-Jan
13 TD later	83%	18-Jan
14 TD later	78%	22-Jan
15 TD later	83%	23-Jan
16 TD later	83%	24-Jan
17 TD later	87%	25-Jan
18 TD later	83%	28-Jan
19 TD later	91%	29-Jan
20 TD later	91%	30-Jan
21 TD later	100%	31-Jan
22 TD later	100%	1-Feb
23 TD later	100%	4-Feb
24 TD later	100%	5-Feb
25 TD later	100%	6-Feb
26 TD later	100%	7-Feb
27 TD later	96%	8-Feb
28 TD later	96%
29 TD later	96%
30 TD later	96%

 SPX/VIX Sentiment chart.  SPX/VIX is reading the highest in many months.

SPX trendline and gann dates match up to 1/31 and 2/5.  1499 with stop cleaning at 1503.  

Smart money holding long, for now

Sorry I have not posted in a while.

This is what I'm seeing in smart money sentiments vs. SPX and trend average.  1468 is support.  1461 is the next support.  If we dip, it needs to punch through1440.

Bully until these prices break, potential to break 1479.  It was a good buying opportunity when both McClellan Oscillator sentiment and Smart Money sentiment were at zero.

Next Gann date November 28th

I will be looking to short going into November 28th and hold if 1420 does not break. November 28th is 180 days from the low of the year.   December 4th is another date I will be watching to confirm November 28th.
 

VIX inside candle

smart money p/c sentiment chart

This chart looks like a bounce is coming tomorrow.  If 10/23 is a low then our next turn gann date is 10/29

VIX had a lift off but rejected at 200dma.

10/23 and 10/29 Gann Dates

Our traders on free chat room banked coins on our short position last Friday.  Next Gann dates are 10/23 and 10/29.  VIX sentiment chart below show a possible bounce going into Tuesday 10/23, which coincides with the Fed meeting.

Hourly SPX chart shows double doji.  Break above 1436.13 would be a good place to scalp long into Tuesday 10/23. 

VIX sentiment chart as of Friday.

As long as we do not close above 1446 on Tuesday and as high as 1450, we should head into 10/29 and test 1420>1400.   

SPX 1458 and Thursday 34th fib cycle day

I posted on chart.ly that the bounce was coming last thursday if 1429 held. 

http://stocktwits.com/ganncycle

So we got the bounce on Monday per my gann date that I posted on our free trading chat room 

Today both SPX and VIX closed green, so it is likely that SPX will go red in coming days.  This thursday is 34th day from the high of the year on 9/14.

2hr SPX chart shows 1458 is the swing price to watch.  If it holds, it will be a good place to short going into election. 

VIX ready to take off next week?

Close above 15.37 needed first and then 16.24

October 5th or 8th

Gann 21 days from the high of the year is this Friday October 5th, which is also 13 trading days from the high of the year.  1/6th of the year is 23 days.  That puts us on Sunday October 7th, or trading day on October 8th.  Start shorting starting Friday.

SPX/VIX > 80 is showing high probability of decline in coming days going into Friday and next week.

Probability Of Down		Date
1 TD later	67%	6-Sep
2 TD later	50%	7-Sep
3 TD later	42%	10-Sep
4 TD later	57%	11-Sep
5 TD later	61%	12-Sep
6 TD later	57%	13-Sep
7 TD later	65%	14-Sep
8 TD later	65%	17-Sep
9 TD later	70%	18-Sep
10 TD later	74%	19-Sep
11 TD later	74%	20-Sep
12 TD later	74%	21-Sep
13 TD later	83%	24-Sep
14 TD later	78%	25-Sep
15 TD later	83%	26-Sep
16 TD later	83%	27-Sep
17 TD later	87%	28-Sep
18 TD later	83%	1-Oct
19 TD later	91%	2-Oct
20 TD later	91%
21 TD later	100%
22 TD later	100%
23 TD later	100%
24 TD later	100%
25 TD later	100%
26 TD later	100%
27 TD later	96%
28 TD later	96%
29 TD later	96%
30 TD later	96%

Hourly SPX chart is showing bullish engulfing pattern. So we should see uptrend going into Wednesday.

Today's daily closed with a Doji.  There is a battle going on here between 1440 and 1452. 

Daily double doji and end of 3rd quarter

Last 2 trading days, SPX showed a double doji. 1450 low and 1467 high.  A close below or above high and low gives us direction for the week.  1452 is the conversion price.  

VIX is showing support, but it still has a little more room down with a major support at 13.30.

McC Oscillator sentiment is approaching oversold condition.  Smart money sentiment is still high.

End of this month is window dressing for the 3rd quarter.  Friday is also 14 days from the high of the year, a gann date. Thursday is 13th day, or a fib date.

Possible bounce tomorrow

I'm taking my short position off tomorrow on weakness.

NYAD sentiment is showing possible bounce.