Next Gann date November 28th

I will be looking to short going into November 28th and hold if 1420 does not break. November 28th is 180 days from the low of the year.   December 4th is another date I will be watching to confirm November 28th.
 

VIX inside candle

smart money p/c sentiment chart

This chart looks like a bounce is coming tomorrow.  If 10/23 is a low then our next turn gann date is 10/29

VIX had a lift off but rejected at 200dma.

10/23 and 10/29 Gann Dates

Our traders on free chat room banked coins on our short position last Friday.  Next Gann dates are 10/23 and 10/29.  VIX sentiment chart below show a possible bounce going into Tuesday 10/23, which coincides with the Fed meeting.

Hourly SPX chart shows double doji.  Break above 1436.13 would be a good place to scalp long into Tuesday 10/23. 

VIX sentiment chart as of Friday.

As long as we do not close above 1446 on Tuesday and as high as 1450, we should head into 10/29 and test 1420>1400.   

SPX 1458 and Thursday 34th fib cycle day

I posted on chart.ly that the bounce was coming last thursday if 1429 held. 

http://stocktwits.com/ganncycle

So we got the bounce on Monday per my gann date that I posted on our free trading chat room 

Today both SPX and VIX closed green, so it is likely that SPX will go red in coming days.  This thursday is 34th day from the high of the year on 9/14.

2hr SPX chart shows 1458 is the swing price to watch.  If it holds, it will be a good place to short going into election. 

VIX ready to take off next week?

Close above 15.37 needed first and then 16.24

October 5th or 8th

Gann 21 days from the high of the year is this Friday October 5th, which is also 13 trading days from the high of the year.  1/6th of the year is 23 days.  That puts us on Sunday October 7th, or trading day on October 8th.  Start shorting starting Friday.

SPX/VIX > 80 is showing high probability of decline in coming days going into Friday and next week.

Probability Of Down		Date
1 TD later	67%	6-Sep
2 TD later	50%	7-Sep
3 TD later	42%	10-Sep
4 TD later	57%	11-Sep
5 TD later	61%	12-Sep
6 TD later	57%	13-Sep
7 TD later	65%	14-Sep
8 TD later	65%	17-Sep
9 TD later	70%	18-Sep
10 TD later	74%	19-Sep
11 TD later	74%	20-Sep
12 TD later	74%	21-Sep
13 TD later	83%	24-Sep
14 TD later	78%	25-Sep
15 TD later	83%	26-Sep
16 TD later	83%	27-Sep
17 TD later	87%	28-Sep
18 TD later	83%	1-Oct
19 TD later	91%	2-Oct
20 TD later	91%
21 TD later	100%
22 TD later	100%
23 TD later	100%
24 TD later	100%
25 TD later	100%
26 TD later	100%
27 TD later	96%
28 TD later	96%
29 TD later	96%
30 TD later	96%

Hourly SPX chart is showing bullish engulfing pattern. So we should see uptrend going into Wednesday.

Today's daily closed with a Doji.  There is a battle going on here between 1440 and 1452. 

Daily double doji and end of 3rd quarter

Last 2 trading days, SPX showed a double doji. 1450 low and 1467 high.  A close below or above high and low gives us direction for the week.  1452 is the conversion price.  

VIX is showing support, but it still has a little more room down with a major support at 13.30.

McC Oscillator sentiment is approaching oversold condition.  Smart money sentiment is still high.

End of this month is window dressing for the 3rd quarter.  Friday is also 14 days from the high of the year, a gann date. Thursday is 13th day, or a fib date.

Possible bounce tomorrow

I'm taking my short position off tomorrow on weakness.

NYAD sentiment is showing possible bounce.

Major support at 1440 now after QE3

Yesterday's Ben's announcement to buy Mortgage back securities stopped out my short position for a very small loss.  I believe in hard stops and it saved me from a disaster.  I did not think Ben had anything left with Treasury bond buying based on JP Morgan stats on how much leverage Ben had with Treasuries after 2 QEs, cause there wasn't much he could buy. Hence my reason for the short before the announcement.  However, voila, he pulls a trick out of the hat with an announcement to buy Mortgage bonds instead.  Ben is clearly running outside of his Fed charter for monetary policy and the stability of the dollar.

Today we put in a new high and QE3 is on a hyper drive and causing the dollar to tank. Any pull back next week will likely bounce.  4hr SPX chart shows a conversion price of 1452.  1440 is now the major support line.

$NYMO sentiment is at 100% for 2 straight days. So some type of pull back is due.  So I'm scalping short through Monday.

VIX Sentiment is showing 100% also.

Russell 2000 Advance and Decline daily chart.  Near resistance after breaking out of descending wedge in mid August. The VIX sentiment above also confirmed it.

TLT and GLD

I bought SPXS at open on Friday. We did not get to 1440 until after hour. So I count 3 trading days, or Wednesday for some type of reaction with a stop above 1446. With german high court ruling on Wednesday, my charts on TLT and GLD confirm that a pull back is possible. If TLT and GLD, support and resistance, are tested then stops upto 1446 may be taken out by Monday or Tuesday.

TLT, 20+ Treasury bond, 4hr chart is showing support at  123.30 and 123.79

GLD is showing resistance at 170.13

1440 SPX and September 12th

On Tuesday big boys returned from summer vacation, we had an inside day on TLT and then a red doji that confirmed it.  So something was brewing in the bond market to take the short off.  We discussed this in the chat room, and one of our experienced trader, racer, was very bully as long as 1398 held.   Tomorrow Friday is another gann date.  It looks like 1440 top from 2008 will be tested.

Either we test 1440 SPX on Friday, or not, Gann said to watch for a change on 3rd or 4th trading day from important top for change in minor trend.  It may become a beginning of a major trend. That puts us to September 12th.

NYMO sentiment looks like it has alittle bit left to the upside.

Bounce possible after August 24th

My sentiment charts are showing a possible bounce on or after August 24th (Gann Cycle date). We may have one more down day tomorrow based on sentiment chats. If we don't break 1398 tomorrow, possibility exists for another attempt to break 1422 (**correction 1419 close)
That brings us to August 30th the next Gann date.   SPX/VIX ratio is still above 80 and 16 trading days increases the probability of turn.  So if we don't break 1398 tomorrow on Gann date, then heading into August 30th is where I will load up on my short position to swing. August 31 is Jackson Hole Meeting of Feds.

NYMO

NYAD

 OEX (bounce as early as August 24th)

 Avg Sentiment

Happy trading!

Double Top?

We're getting close to a possible double top at 1422.  Stops are sitting at this area after OPEX on Friday.  Below are sentiment charts prior to Monday August 20th (another gann date).  This looks like it is almost baked to short.  Maybe a beginning of pullback.  If it breaks below 1405, then 1398, 1393, and 1386 are support.  There is a gap on VIX sitting at 17.55 area. It's possible to hit the lower bollinger band before it bounces to cover the gap. 

McClellan Oscillator (100%) after + divergence.

NYAD sentiment forming negative divergence

VIX (100%)

I have added a position on UVXY.  Closed 8/20

SPX/VIX > 80 Probability

I'm still patiently waiting for the set-up.  The potential is still there that this breaks 1422 and a new bull trend is established.  But right now, it's a nested rising wedge within a rising channel, trying to break through trendline from 2007. 

One ratio that has been reliable for me in the past is SPX/VIX.  When this ratio stays above 80, the probability of decline increases with each passing day.  Back in April, it hit 100% and sold off.  So if we stay above 80, below are probabilities after each trading day.

Probability Of Down		Date
1 TD later	67%	3-Aug
2 TD later	50%	6-Aug
3 TD later	42%	7-Aug
4 TD later	57%	8-Aug
5 TD later	61%	9-Aug
6 TD later	57%	10-Aug
7 TD later	65%	13-Aug
8 TD later	65%	14-Aug
9 TD later	70%	15-Aug
10 TD later	74%	16-Aug
11 TD later	74%	17-Aug
12 TD later	74%	20-Aug
13 TD later	83%	21-Aug
14 TD later	78%	22-Aug
15 TD later	83%	23-Aug
16 TD later	83%	24-Aug
17 TD later	87%	27-Aug
18 TD later	83%	28-Aug
19 TD later	91%	29-Aug
20 TD later	91%	30-Aug
21 TD later	100%	31-Aug
22 TD later	100%
23 TD later	100%
24 TD later	100%
25 TD later	100%
26 TD later	100%
27 TD later	96%
28 TD later	96%
29 TD later	96%
30 TD later	96%

Patiently wait til August 24th - Gann Cycle date

After today's scalp on the short side, I have decided to wait until August 24th to short to swing trade instead of scalping short or long intraday for the remainder of August.  August 9th is my immediate gann cycle date with August 8th Fibonnaci cycle date.  Because both SPX and VIX closed green, we will see some type of pull back by this Wednesday or Thursday.  Support is sitting at 1393 and 1386.  Further support can be found at 1378.  The rising channel is now a rising wedge with higher low.

There are other Gann cycle dates in between now and August 24th (8/15 and 8/20), but the chart is lining up with August 24th OPEX.  1407 and 1410 SPX area is where I will begin loading up on short side for a good extended swing, unless SPX takes out 1422.  There is another Gann date on August 30, but I'm not going to look at that now unless 1422 is taken out.   For now, we chop up and down on this channel / rising wedge until August 24th.  By then all smart money traders will be back from summer holidays. A very successful futures trader on our chat board taught me to wait at the watering hole.  The market is like a python and will not let retail shorts out until it has heard the last heart beat.

Retail P/C Sentiment

 

August 3rd Gann date and bullish inside candle on 4hr

SPX turned on July 31 Gann Cycle date, and now we head into August 3rd for a possible bounce based on an inside candle on 4hr chart at close.  SPX and VIX both closed RED today.  If SPX breaks through 1372 on Friday then another test of 1393 is possible going into August 9th. But if we do not break 1372, then we head back down to 1340 and possibly lower.  For tomorrow's trade, 1363 and 1352 are support.  SPX is still above the trend average.

NYMO Sentiment Chart

 
NYAD Sentiment Chart

VIX Sentiment Trend

Double Doji on 1 hr SPX

Current Gann cycle date is 7/31 after a turn on 7/26.   Double doji on 60 minute chart indicates market battling at resistance from 4/2 and 5/1 trendline.  Day trading strategy is to mark the high and low of friday's 1 hr double doji and trade in the direction of the break of low or high. There is support sitting at 1378/80 and 1372.  I still think there is more upside til 1393 and may extend until August 1 FOMC announcement. Next Gann Cycle dates are August 3rd and August 9th.

Tuesday must confirm channel support line

Next Gann Cycle date is July 31st.  We are still trading within an up channel.  But, if we break below the lower support channel on Tuesday, then we know which direction we will trend towards July 31st.  There is also a fib cycle date on July 26th.

 My sentiment charts indicate a possible bounce on Tuesday.

July 23rd Gann Cycle Date

As expected since we made the turn on last Friday's Gann Cycle date, Smart Money has been holding long during this week and we have another Gann Cycle date coming up on Monday, July 23rd.  It could start as early as Friday afternoon based on candle fib count.

1378 is a major resistance and we punched through to 1380, but died with a gravestone doji on 60min chart.  We closed with an inside candle on 5min and 2hr chart, and then an indecision doji on 4hr.  Daily candle is still bullish but weakening.  We have a rising wedge that could breakdown tomorrow, which should find support at 1367, or pump to 1388 given OPEX.

Monday 7/23 is 34 daily candles (fib number) and also 78 trading days since the high of 4/2.

NYMO sentiment is still showing positive divergence

 VIX Trend is at it's highest given it has sunk down to 15 level.  We are near the interim top.  This descending wedge has played out from last week.

 

VIX Sentiment is showing oversold condition for last 3 days.









  

SPX Price levels for OPEX

Major bounce occurred on Gann Turn date 7/13.  I'm looking at these price levels for support and resistance for swing up or down.  Going into tomorrow, there is a critical resistance at 1359 SPX and support at 1349.  Tomorrow's conversion/pivot price is 1350 with trend average at 1354.  

NYMO vs Smart Money Sentiment as of Friday's close.

Going into OPEX

Gann Cycle possible turn dates are today and Monday.  Going into OPEX, July 23 is another Gann Cycle date.  So I will be watching which way it turns.

Smart Money and NYMO sentiment.  NYMO is in oversold territory as of close on Thursday.

Double Doji 4 hr candles.

Break above or below 1345 high or 1333.25 low in next candle will indicate direction for today's trade.  Yesterday it bounced off 50 and 100 DMA, as well as bottom trend line.

Descending Wedge to 1340

As I posted before, this is complex wave 4 chopping between 23 and 50 fib (1344SPX).  With this morning's gap up, it's clearer on direction into Gann Cycle on Friday and Monday the 16th (1344 - 1340 support SPX).  A descending wedge is in progress.  July 20-23 may be promising for bulls going into OPEX on Friday.   If it breaks down, then I'm watching 1334 to short.  If 1340>1334 holds, high probability that we rally into OPEX to finish wave 5.

Below is my EW count.

VIX - descending wedge

A descending wedge is in progress on VIX going into next week 's Gann Cycle Date July 13 (2x21 days) - July 16th (45 days).   OPEX is july 20th, and that day is also square of 7, or 49 days from the low on July 1.  Day before OPEX is also 34 trading days from the low.

I'll buy VIX when we bounce off 15 or 14 support swing prices and when SPX reaches 1392 -1405 range.  Swing short from there.

It's possible based on EW that smart money pumps this back to 1392 - 1405 area on W5 of C of 2 before slamming this down hard per Chaikin Oscillator on HYG chart below.  It has been the highest in 4 years.

I'm still expecting some type of chop in early part of the week on W4. 

Both VIX and SPX closed RED

VIX has been in a support zone between 15 to 18 during last 3 years.  SPX peaked at these levels.  The fact that both SPX and VIX closed red is troubling and maybe the smart money knows something that we do not know.  We bounced off 1348/49 level and closed above 1354 swing low support.  We retraced 38fib so it satisfies wave 4, but alternation uptrend rule on EW maybe possible to chop between 23 and 50 fib (1344) before finishing wave 5. SPX 1346 is the next swing low support price and it is also where current trend average closed on Friday. If we retrace deeper 1340 is a big swing low support price. 

Below charts may indicate that smart money is not bought into the downside and maybe holding long.  Disappointing job numbers on Friday and previous contracting economic news possibly leave QE3 open.

Important Gann Cycle Date is 7/13-7/16.

 NYMO

 

VIX

NYAD