One more move down before Obamacare?

I'll close remaining short from last Thursday if we gap down tomorrow, or sell into weakness.  I will reload on any bounce after ObamaCare decision on Thursday and strength going into Gann date 7/1, and hold through the weekend if candle price and sentiment charts tell me so.

Today, we failed to close above 1324

Trend Average SPX: 1336 IWM 77.17

VIX Sentiment

VIX trend and NYAD sentiments

VIX trend is from Monday's close.  Below is NYAD sentiment from last night.

Smart Money P/C Ratio Sentiment after Friday's close

Friday's close sentiment chart (red line) showed high probability of down on Monday.

SPX closed below pivot and the witches are singing

Just as I had expected on my NYAD sentiment chart from last night, we bounced, but closed below pivot and trend average.  Friday close was 38fib retrace and created an "inside" candle (weak comparing where it closed relative to previous day).  

The new trend average for Monday is 1337.  Close below 1333 favor bears or above 1340 for bulls.

Change in trend confirmed

56th trading day after the high of the year, we got confirmation today after FOMC (13th day fib).  Ben came to the world stage with a .22 caliber pistol instead of bazooka that everyone expected.  The QE rumor and expectation rally is baked in the price. Now we knifed through both 50DMA and trend average.  We tested 50 DMA twice before this morning, so it was a great opportunity to short the bounce.  Nothing goes down straight given Elliott Wave counts, and one of my chart is showing a possible bounce tomorrow.  If we move side ways and get "bread crumb" as resident chat room night raider, racer, would not share the meat he eats at night, then you know it's wave 4.  Trend average after the close is sitting at 1334 SPX and 76.82 IWM.   In order to close in red for the week, bears need a close below 1342, then the quadruple witches extend their streak to 14 years.   

Our next Gann Road Marker (GRM) is on July 1st, or July 2nd on Monday.  I'm expecting some type of reaction, news, rumors, more EU summit clowns on next Thursday, to make a u turn or continue going in the same direction.

 

This chart shows possible bounce on Friday

50 DMA held and closed below 100 DMA

Yesterday we bounced off 50 DMA and closed below 100 DMA.  Today's close above or below these support and resistance prices is important for the direction next week.  Bears need a close below 1342 by Friday to end the week in negative. Current trend average is 1334 SPX and 76.86 IWM.  Smart money sentiments are extended, but we saw that last time we had operational twist. 

Charts from yesterday is updated below.

FOMC is 13th trading day from this year's low

What a coincidence.  Today is also 13 trading days after yearly low (SPX close) on 6/1.  Gann said to never hold a position longer than 13 days after a major trend change.  So we may get a turn by tomorrow.

VIX sell signal confirmation tomorrow?

Well, we closed inside VIX BB after yesterday's outside, so we'll see if Fed will pony up on this rumor rally. We bounced off 62fib at 1363 SPX.  If the Fed confirms, we rally higher into 7/2.  If not,we retrace and test the lows into 7/2.  56th trading day cycle is this Thursday, not Wednesday, from the high on 4/2.

SPX Trend Average is 1329.3 and IWM is 76.57.  Happy Trading!

 

 

FOMC - confirms direction for July 2nd

Tomorrow's FOMC and Ben's decision on second operation twist (QE3) will dictate whether I'm going with the bull rally until July 2nd or short to test lower low by July 2nd. 

Tested 1347 50DMA

Based on my Gann cycle, the next significant change in trend is June 20th, which is 56th trading day from the high of this year.  It is the same date when Ben speaks.

Today, we hit 50 DMA resistance and broke through 1347 SPX briefly, but closed below it.  Last 2 hourly candles finished bearish.   SPX trend average is 1324.5.  If we head south, we should test there and expect a bounce if this bullish uptrend is to continue beyond 62fib retrace.

Sentiment charts have peaked at 100%.

Good luck on your trading.

smart money sentiment after close on friday

Monday 18th is 11th Gann Trading day after the low on 6/1.

 please send me an email if you'd like to get other charts.

Tomorrow is 14th day after yearly SPX LOW

As my chart showed yesterday, we got a bounce and a heck of volatility after the news.  I closed the short during pre-market before 8:30 news with nice profit.  I tried to scalp short again but was stopped out with a small loss.  Today, we almost took out 1335.52 SPX.  That would have changed the larger wave count for elliott wavers on SPX.

So tomorrow is options expiration, and it squarely lands after 14 days of hitting the yearly low.  Gann said watch for the reaction especially on 14th day.  Options expiration turn date is Monday the 18th, which is also 11th "trading" day after the yearly low.  So it's no coincidence.

My sentiment chart tonight says to short any rally tomorrow morning.   As long as we don't break above 1335.52, that is what I plan to do intraday.  I will NOT hold through the weekend. 

Two sentiment charts may confirm my outlook for tomorrow.  First is VIX/VXV (sell short) ratio sentiment.  Whenever this ratio falls below .90, the odds favor the bears.  I'm reading 0.87. Two days ago when it read .89, indices sank and VIX rallied in the afternoon catching bulls off-guard. Today sentiment hit 0%, which means VIX will close the gap on VXV. This sentiment indicates that options traders are bullish in their 30 day outlook (VIX), which is more event driven, versus 93 day long term outlook. Odds are that VIX will move up to bridge the gap.  Given the options expiration and the late day news that reversed the indices before heading down today, the odds favor VIX going higher, of course unless all kinds of news come out to put a positive spin on Greek election.

My second confirmation comes from McClellan Oscillator sentiment.  We're at the top range above 90% at 94%.  Two days ago, I held short on this because of this sentiment at 95%.  Maybe we get to 100% sentiment, but I like the odds of index closing lower in RED.

Lastly, my VIX/Volatility Sentiment chart has spiked (see RED line).  If the red line drops (10day average of the sentiment), indices will begin to tank and VIX shoots up. The jury is still out on which way July 1st will unfold according to Gann Cycle.  But I will know more as we get closer to the date and as this chart turns or march up.
 

Smart Money Market Sentiment

Well, well, my first blog.  Here are my charts for tomorrow.

Red line (Smart Money P/C Sentiment) is near zero, so I'm expecting a bounce by tomorrow afternoon.  The same chart in longer time frame is shown below.

I'm expecting (b) down near 1292 SPX with (c) rally into July2, near 62Fib area (SPX - 1362).  July 1 is a major Gann cycle date. Tomorrow is also 13 days (fib zone) after yearly low.  Friday is 14th day which Gann said to watch for a major reaction, especially given the Greek Election is on 17th Sunday. 

So tomorrow I'll sell the remaining short position into weakness and then scalp for a possible bounce.  Friday, I'm expecting final (b) wave down.