Daily double doji and end of 3rd quarter

Last 2 trading days, SPX showed a double doji. 1450 low and 1467 high.  A close below or above high and low gives us direction for the week.  1452 is the conversion price.  

VIX is showing support, but it still has a little more room down with a major support at 13.30.

McC Oscillator sentiment is approaching oversold condition.  Smart money sentiment is still high.

End of this month is window dressing for the 3rd quarter.  Friday is also 14 days from the high of the year, a gann date. Thursday is 13th day, or a fib date.

Possible bounce tomorrow

I'm taking my short position off tomorrow on weakness.

NYAD sentiment is showing possible bounce.

Major support at 1440 now after QE3

Yesterday's Ben's announcement to buy Mortgage back securities stopped out my short position for a very small loss.  I believe in hard stops and it saved me from a disaster.  I did not think Ben had anything left with Treasury bond buying based on JP Morgan stats on how much leverage Ben had with Treasuries after 2 QEs, cause there wasn't much he could buy. Hence my reason for the short before the announcement.  However, voila, he pulls a trick out of the hat with an announcement to buy Mortgage bonds instead.  Ben is clearly running outside of his Fed charter for monetary policy and the stability of the dollar.

Today we put in a new high and QE3 is on a hyper drive and causing the dollar to tank. Any pull back next week will likely bounce.  4hr SPX chart shows a conversion price of 1452.  1440 is now the major support line.

$NYMO sentiment is at 100% for 2 straight days. So some type of pull back is due.  So I'm scalping short through Monday.

VIX Sentiment is showing 100% also.

Russell 2000 Advance and Decline daily chart.  Near resistance after breaking out of descending wedge in mid August. The VIX sentiment above also confirmed it.

TLT and GLD

I bought SPXS at open on Friday. We did not get to 1440 until after hour. So I count 3 trading days, or Wednesday for some type of reaction with a stop above 1446. With german high court ruling on Wednesday, my charts on TLT and GLD confirm that a pull back is possible. If TLT and GLD, support and resistance, are tested then stops upto 1446 may be taken out by Monday or Tuesday.

TLT, 20+ Treasury bond, 4hr chart is showing support at  123.30 and 123.79

GLD is showing resistance at 170.13

1440 SPX and September 12th

On Tuesday big boys returned from summer vacation, we had an inside day on TLT and then a red doji that confirmed it.  So something was brewing in the bond market to take the short off.  We discussed this in the chat room, and one of our experienced trader, racer, was very bully as long as 1398 held.   Tomorrow Friday is another gann date.  It looks like 1440 top from 2008 will be tested.

Either we test 1440 SPX on Friday, or not, Gann said to watch for a change on 3rd or 4th trading day from important top for change in minor trend.  It may become a beginning of a major trend. That puts us to September 12th.

NYMO sentiment looks like it has alittle bit left to the upside.