Double Doji on 1 hr SPX

Current Gann cycle date is 7/31 after a turn on 7/26.   Double doji on 60 minute chart indicates market battling at resistance from 4/2 and 5/1 trendline.  Day trading strategy is to mark the high and low of friday's 1 hr double doji and trade in the direction of the break of low or high. There is support sitting at 1378/80 and 1372.  I still think there is more upside til 1393 and may extend until August 1 FOMC announcement. Next Gann Cycle dates are August 3rd and August 9th.

Tuesday must confirm channel support line

Next Gann Cycle date is July 31st.  We are still trading within an up channel.  But, if we break below the lower support channel on Tuesday, then we know which direction we will trend towards July 31st.  There is also a fib cycle date on July 26th.

 My sentiment charts indicate a possible bounce on Tuesday.

July 23rd Gann Cycle Date

As expected since we made the turn on last Friday's Gann Cycle date, Smart Money has been holding long during this week and we have another Gann Cycle date coming up on Monday, July 23rd.  It could start as early as Friday afternoon based on candle fib count.

1378 is a major resistance and we punched through to 1380, but died with a gravestone doji on 60min chart.  We closed with an inside candle on 5min and 2hr chart, and then an indecision doji on 4hr.  Daily candle is still bullish but weakening.  We have a rising wedge that could breakdown tomorrow, which should find support at 1367, or pump to 1388 given OPEX.

Monday 7/23 is 34 daily candles (fib number) and also 78 trading days since the high of 4/2.

NYMO sentiment is still showing positive divergence

 VIX Trend is at it's highest given it has sunk down to 15 level.  We are near the interim top.  This descending wedge has played out from last week.

 

VIX Sentiment is showing oversold condition for last 3 days.









  

SPX Price levels for OPEX

Major bounce occurred on Gann Turn date 7/13.  I'm looking at these price levels for support and resistance for swing up or down.  Going into tomorrow, there is a critical resistance at 1359 SPX and support at 1349.  Tomorrow's conversion/pivot price is 1350 with trend average at 1354.  

NYMO vs Smart Money Sentiment as of Friday's close.

Going into OPEX

Gann Cycle possible turn dates are today and Monday.  Going into OPEX, July 23 is another Gann Cycle date.  So I will be watching which way it turns.

Smart Money and NYMO sentiment.  NYMO is in oversold territory as of close on Thursday.

Double Doji 4 hr candles.

Break above or below 1345 high or 1333.25 low in next candle will indicate direction for today's trade.  Yesterday it bounced off 50 and 100 DMA, as well as bottom trend line.

Descending Wedge to 1340

As I posted before, this is complex wave 4 chopping between 23 and 50 fib (1344SPX).  With this morning's gap up, it's clearer on direction into Gann Cycle on Friday and Monday the 16th (1344 - 1340 support SPX).  A descending wedge is in progress.  July 20-23 may be promising for bulls going into OPEX on Friday.   If it breaks down, then I'm watching 1334 to short.  If 1340>1334 holds, high probability that we rally into OPEX to finish wave 5.

Below is my EW count.

VIX - descending wedge

A descending wedge is in progress on VIX going into next week 's Gann Cycle Date July 13 (2x21 days) - July 16th (45 days).   OPEX is july 20th, and that day is also square of 7, or 49 days from the low on July 1.  Day before OPEX is also 34 trading days from the low.

I'll buy VIX when we bounce off 15 or 14 support swing prices and when SPX reaches 1392 -1405 range.  Swing short from there.

It's possible based on EW that smart money pumps this back to 1392 - 1405 area on W5 of C of 2 before slamming this down hard per Chaikin Oscillator on HYG chart below.  It has been the highest in 4 years.

I'm still expecting some type of chop in early part of the week on W4. 

Both VIX and SPX closed RED

VIX has been in a support zone between 15 to 18 during last 3 years.  SPX peaked at these levels.  The fact that both SPX and VIX closed red is troubling and maybe the smart money knows something that we do not know.  We bounced off 1348/49 level and closed above 1354 swing low support.  We retraced 38fib so it satisfies wave 4, but alternation uptrend rule on EW maybe possible to chop between 23 and 50 fib (1344) before finishing wave 5. SPX 1346 is the next swing low support price and it is also where current trend average closed on Friday. If we retrace deeper 1340 is a big swing low support price. 

Below charts may indicate that smart money is not bought into the downside and maybe holding long.  Disappointing job numbers on Friday and previous contracting economic news possibly leave QE3 open.

Important Gann Cycle Date is 7/13-7/16.

 NYMO

 

VIX

NYAD

Looking for at least 23fib retrace on W4

2.62xwave1 for wave3 is sitting at 1378 SPX, which is also previous swing high resistance.   Found support at 1363 and never reached 1360 (23fib).  So we did not retrace 23fib yet.   1367>1358>1354>1346 previous swing support price levels.  1334 SPX top of wave 1.  Alternation principal on uptrend gives possibility of a W4 zigzag to 23 or 50 fib, before completing wave C of 2.

We closed negative after 21 trading days from the low.  7/6 is 67 trading days from the high on 4/2. 7/13 & 7/16 are important Gann dates.

Sentiment charts:

VIX

 NYAD

 NYMO