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Thursday, June 14, 2012

Tomorrow is 14th day after yearly SPX LOW

As my chart showed yesterday, we got a bounce and a heck of volatility after the news.  I closed the short during pre-market before 8:30 news with nice profit.  I tried to scalp short again but was stopped out with a small loss.  Today, we almost took out 1335.52 SPX.  That would have changed the larger wave count for elliott wavers on SPX.

So tomorrow is options expiration, and it squarely lands after 14 days of hitting the yearly low.  Gann said watch for the reaction especially on 14th day.  Options expiration turn date is Monday the 18th, which is also 11th "trading" day after the yearly low.  So it's no coincidence.

My sentiment chart tonight says to short any rally tomorrow morning.   As long as we don't break above 1335.52, that is what I plan to do intraday.  I will NOT hold through the weekend. 

Two sentiment charts may confirm my outlook for tomorrow.  First is VIX/VXV (sell short) ratio sentiment.  Whenever this ratio falls below .90, the odds favor the bears.  I'm reading 0.87. Two days ago when it read .89, indices sank and VIX rallied in the afternoon catching bulls off-guard. Today sentiment hit 0%, which means VIX will close the gap on VXV. This sentiment indicates that options traders are bullish in their 30 day outlook (VIX), which is more event driven, versus 93 day long term outlook. Odds are that VIX will move up to bridge the gap.  Given the options expiration and the late day news that reversed the indices before heading down today, the odds favor VIX going higher, of course unless all kinds of news come out to put a positive spin on Greek election.



My second confirmation comes from McClellan Oscillator sentiment.  We're at the top range above 90% at 94%.  Two days ago, I held short on this because of this sentiment at 95%.  Maybe we get to 100% sentiment, but I like the odds of index closing lower in RED.


Lastly, my VIX/Volatility Sentiment chart has spiked (see RED line).  If the red line drops (10day average of the sentiment), indices will begin to tank and VIX shoots up. The jury is still out on which way July 1st will unfold according to Gann Cycle.  But I will know more as we get closer to the date and as this chart turns or march up.
 





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